Why Bush Will Win No Matter What Posted on Thursday, July 1, 2004 Before I start, I want to say that I hope to no end that everything I am about to say is disproved by a Kerry win in November. I have always been one for moderation though, I just happen to be siding with the blues this year, so let's step back for a second and look at this race. As of yesterday / the day before that, Bush's approval rating was polled at 42% with a 51% disapproval rating. I remember just a few months ago watching to see if he would ever get in to the mid-50's which has spelled defeat for the incumbent for the past 50 years. I never imagined in my wildest dreams that Bush would ever get in to that red-zone of the 50th percentile... much less the lower 40's. However, Bush has some cards up his sleeve. First) Money, lots, and lots, of money. The only competition Kerry has financially is when you factor in 527's which are always highly contested by watchdog groups. This gives moderates, as well as the 'publicans, a viable perspective that there is something inherently scandalous with Kerry's attempts just to compete in terms of campaigning. This potentiality stirs the pot some, just as any dispute that a former administration insider publishes a book on gets discredited by the public simply from the sitting administration claiming a possibility of "sour grapes". Second) The terror-alert-traffic-light-holy-shit-load-your-pants-meter. When this system was first installed, most of us chuckled and let it by. But at the beginning of this summer, Ashcroft (Attorney General) came out claiming that there was a tremendous threat of a catastrophic summer terrorist attack. Tom Ridge (Secretary of Homeland Security) comes out at the same time saying the exact opposite, saying the chatter they've been hearing is routine, and there is no reason for people to be scared. This means, of course, that the departments of intelligence still are not working together as they claim was the original problem that allowed 9-11... effectively scaring the shit out of me just like a higher color on the meter would do. Go with my rationale, go with Moore's in "Fahrenheit", go with your own, the green-blue-yellow-orange-red (keeping in mind that we have never gone below yellow, despite Ridge's aforementioned "non-threatening routine chatter" claim) generates apprehensive Bush support each time it makes news. Third) Saddam Hussein. Today, he made his first court appearance. He claimed it was a theater (which it is, no interim govt. that is instated by an occupying force has any jurisdiction much less law books to try someone on. They should wait for the real government), and claimed it was for the Bush re-election. Funny, I have something in common with Hussein. I've been saying this exact same thing for months. Hussein goes on trial, we see his face, think "gee whiz I loathe that guy", and then we presumably see all over the media hideous war crimes he committed. We all decide "gee whiz, what a great thing he's gone now. Go W." Despite the whole debacle over WMD or rationality for the war. Hussein bad, we are all square on that. Seeing that on the TV makes Bush look good, no question about it. Fourth) "Triple X", aka potential Osama. In Iraq right now there is a prisoner named only "Triple X" who was hidden from the Red Cross by special request of Former CIA Director George Tenet due to the prisoner's nature as an "extremely high value target". This guy could be the former Iraqi Dictator's toilet bowl cleaner for all we know, but it broaches a point. Osama Bin Laden is long forgotten by many, Mr. "Dead or Alive", Mr. "Public Enemy #1" is now Saddam. (Topical Humorous Commentary Here) For all we know that guy is in custody right now. All Bush needs to do is say we're close (just a couple days ago we "almost got Zarqawi" and no media outlet in this country let you forget it for the whole day) and the whole War on Terror (no 'ism' included anymore btw, but we'll talk about that later) looks far better even conceptually. Four quick reasons why Bush gets the re-election no problem. But now... this is all without Kerry... what else could he do now that we have Kerry in this mix? Fifth) Hijacking Iraq Plan. Bush has no plan; Kerry won't be competitive without one. Kerry comes out with one, Bush takes it and implements it as his own. Bush looks great with a fantastic plan that has worked wonderfully; liberals get called crazy names for accurately reporting that Kerry had advocated these things long before Bush had even hinted that he may stray from unilateralism. Bush implements this plan and even Bill Schneider comes out saying it's a flip-flop for Bush. But now Kerry "has no plan" or, as Nader will say, "is identical with the Bush plan". How could the public disagree? That's the nature of an incumbent hijacking his opposition's ideas... there's absolutely jack taco anybody can do about it but think ill of the challenger for being so similar to the incumbent. Sixth) Nader! Oh it should be a Broadway show, exclamation point and all. Nader feels the "conservatives for Nader" groups that keep stumping for him genuinely want to vote for him, and that in turn means he's taking votes away from conservatives and NOT democrats... right? Well, no. No poll has ever indicated anything but the opposite, and you have to be pretty short-sighted in the political process to really buy in to that. Very simple, use republican money to prop up Nader, get Nader all the signatures he needs to get on the ballot in every state, takes out the reported 5% chunk from Kerry, Bush wins by a hair. Perfect. Ever wonder why Republicans are so warm and cuddly toward Nader these days and scold Democrats for being so mean to him? There's that compassionate conservatism we've been hearing so much about I guess. Six reasons, there you go. As much as I hate to say it, I do not realistically see a way in which Bush can lose. As you can see, most (in fairness, really all) of this has nothing to do with Kerry. Kerry is not going to get a fighting chance here if Bush just plays his cards right. The gas prices are already a non-issue anymore, and we've all forgotten Saudi Arabia's sudden publicity on our media talking about how they will come to our aid for no Bush-related reason whatsoever, and we've moved on to wonder how in the world Moore ever came to the conclusion that the Saudis and Bush's are in cahoots. They said they weren't! Anyway, I hope I am proven wrong. I hope Bush does not win this time around. But from what I can gather... no dice for me.